Kaya Identity

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The formula for global CO2 emissions.

Global Variables

Population (Millions)

GDP Per Capita ($)

Energy Intensity (MJ/$)

Carbon Intensity (g/MJ)

Projected Emissions

Projected Emissions27.00GT CO₂

Per Capita3.38t

Global Pop8.00B

Global Comparison (GT / Year)

About this calculator

Quick Reference

FormulaP × G × E × F

TargetNet Zero

Overview

The Kaya Identity expresses total CO2 emissions as the product of four factors: Population, GDP per capita, Energy Intensity (energy per unit of GDP), and Carbon Intensity (emissions per unit of energy). It highlights the main levers for decarbonization.

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Pro Tips

Reduce Energy Intensity by improving efficiency (better insulation, EVs, LED lights).
Reduce Carbon Intensity by switching to renewables (solar, wind, nuclear).
Population and GDP growth are generally harder or less desirable to limit directly.

Fun Facts

"To reduce emissions while GDP and Population grow, we need massive improvements in energy efficiency and carbon intensity."
"A 2050 Net Zero target requires reducing global emissions to near zero (or having negative emissions)."
"Current global emissions are roughly 37 GT of CO2 per year."