Calculate PERT (Program Evaluation Review Technique) estimates for project management.
Task Scenarios
Estimates
Expected Duration16.67hours/days
Standard Deviation (Risk)3.33
Variance11.11
95% Confidence Range
10.0 - 23.3
Overview
PERT uses three estimates (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) to calculate expected duration. Weighted average gives more weight to most likely. Essential for project planning and risk assessment.
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Pro Tips
Optimistic: best case scenario.
Most likely: realistic estimate.
Pessimistic: worst case scenario.
Standard deviation = (Pessimistic - Optimistic) / 6.
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Fun Facts
"Developed by US Navy (1958) for Polaris missile."
"4-2-1 weighting reduces estimate bias."
"Used with Critical Path Method (CPM)."
"95% confidence: Expected ± 2× Standard Deviation."
