Estimate the probability of a shot resulting in a goal based on distance, angle, and situation.
Shot Details
0° = Center
Calculated using an exponential decay model based on historical shot conversion rates. Penalties are fixed at 0.76 xG.
Expected Goals (xG)
0%Goal Probability
xG Value0.00
Analyst Verdict
Low probability pot-shot.
About this calculator
Overview
Expected Goals (xG) is a statistical metric used in soccer to measure the quality of a goal-scoring opportunity. It assigns a value between 0 and 1 to every shot, representing the probability of it being scored.
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Pro Tips
Distance is the single biggest factor in xG—shots from closer to the goal have significantly higher values.
The angle of the shot also matters; shots from wider angles have a smaller target area to hit.
Headers generally have a lower xG than shots with the foot from the same position.
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Fun Facts
"A typical penalty has an xG of 0.76, meaning it is scored 76% of the time."
"An 'average' shot in professional soccer has an xG of approximately 0.10."
"xG helps analysts understand if a team is overperforming or underperforming their goal tally based on their chances created."
